Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu visited Tehran last weekend in order to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s newly elected president, Hassan Rohani. Minister Davutoğlu has used this opportunity to express his views about the future of Turkey’s relations with its important eastern neighbor.
Mr. Davutoğlu has made public Turkey’s three expectations from Iran’s new leader. Logically, Turkey must have many more expectations from Iran, but the minister probably thought that three would be sufficient for now.
First, he has asked Iran to stop supporting the Syrian regime. That means Turkey hopes Iran will no longer logistically and diplomatically help both Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah. In other words, Turkey has asked President Rohani to change Iran’s foreign policy completely. Whether or not he’ll have such a will or power, one will have to give Iran something very important in exchange for asking for such a big shift.
Iran will only modify its Syria policy if it is persuaded that the Damascus regime will fall soon or if the great powers guarantee Tehran an important strategic gain in exchange. However, neither seems possible right now. First of all, we can’t say that the Western powers fully support the Syrian opposition, and we know that Russia supports Assad with all its power. Secondly, some European powers even perceive Iran as a counterbalance to al-Qaeda’s spread in the Middle East and they are ready to cooperate with Iran against radical Sunni organizations operating in Syria if the latter adopts a moderate tone towards the West.
Turkey’s second expectation from President Rohani is to have him support Syria’s territorial integrity. This is a way of asking for cooperation on the Kurdish issue. Ankara is reminding Iran that if Tehran for some reason supports Syrian Kurds’ independence, that will badly damage its relations with Turkey. This second expectation will probably be satisfied, as the Kurdish issue is Iran’s problem as well, so using Syrian Kurds just to hurt Turkey is very risky for Iran. In brief, cooperation on the Kurdish issue is still the best platform for Turkey and Iran to start a dialogue.
Minister Davutoğlu’s third expectation was for Iran to re-embrace the true values of the Islamic revolution. This wish can be interpreted as a reminder of the need to prioritize human values, for example, by demonstrating that Iran’s nuclear program is being developed purely for peaceful purposes. Another way to respect human values is, of course, to promote the country’s economic development, and there is no doubt that Turkey is ready to improve its economic ties with Iran.
Talking about economic cooperation and the Kurdish issue is a way to launch constructive dialogue between Turkey and Iran. In the event of progress in these matters, one can also start discussing ways to cooperate on the Syrian issue. However, for the latter, one has to keep in mind that Turkey and Iran alone cannot dictate their will to anyone, and that they will have to convince their partners before taking any action.
Moreover, the big picture about Iranian-Turkish relations includes Israel, too. If President Rohani adopts an approach of appeasement towards Israel, the latter may be more easily persuaded to accept concessions in the peace process with the Palestinians. It is obvious that Israel has always justified its intransigent approach by using the pretext of the Iranian “threat.”
The Israeli-Palestinian negotiations have just resumed under US auspices. Any progress on this depends on the evolution of the tension between Israel and Iran. Turkey is the only country in the region at equal distance between these two countries. That is why it is perhaps more reasonable to talk first about the economy, Kurds and Israel with Iran before tackling the Syrian issue.
Prof. Dr. Beril DEDEOĞLU
Kaynak: http://en.akademikperspektif.com/2013/08/14/irans-new-president-and-turkey/
